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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the current field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still